火電行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究

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摘 要
隨著改革開(kāi)放和市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)在我國(guó)的飛速發(fā)展，我國(guó)的企業(yè)、上市公司如雨后春筍般冒出來(lái)。中國(guó)加入WTO以后，我國(guó)企業(yè)面臨更廣闊的環(huán)境和機(jī)遇，但同時(shí)也要承擔(dān)更大的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。不少企業(yè)因經(jīng)營(yíng)不良而導(dǎo)致破產(chǎn)。要避免財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的發(fā)生，關(guān)鍵還是在企業(yè)自身，建立一套有效地財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警機(jī)制顯得尤為重要?；鹆Πl(fā)電是我國(guó)最重要的發(fā)電形式，承擔(dān)著我國(guó)一半以上的電力供應(yīng)任務(wù)。但是，火力發(fā)電對(duì)環(huán)境的污染也比較嚴(yán)重?，F(xiàn)如今，我國(guó)對(duì)環(huán)境保護(hù)的呼聲越來(lái)越高。同時(shí)風(fēng)能，水能，太陽(yáng)能，核能發(fā)電也逐漸發(fā)展起來(lái)，對(duì)火電行業(yè)造成一定的沖擊。截至目前，已有好幾家火電上市公司面臨過(guò)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。因此，本文選定對(duì)火電行業(yè)進(jìn)行財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究，有比較重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
本文首先對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警進(jìn)行理論研究，明確財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)、危機(jī)形成的原因、財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警等相關(guān)概念的涵義。然后尋找研究的樣本并選取指標(biāo)，選擇有效的預(yù)警模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證研究。經(jīng)過(guò)多方比較，本文選取的是Logistic回歸模型，建模之前要對(duì)樣本數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行顯著性檢驗(yàn)，剔除不具有顯著性差異的指標(biāo)以保證模型的準(zhǔn)確性。最后提出本文研究的結(jié)論并給出建議。

關(guān)鍵詞：火電行業(yè) 財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警 Logistic回歸模型

ABSTRACT
With the reform and opening up and rapid development of China's market economy, China's enterprises, listed companies have sprung up. After China joined the WTO, China's enterprises are facing a broader environment and have more opportunities, but they also take greater risks. Many companies bankrupt due to poor operation.To avoid the financial crisis, the key is in the business itself, it is particularly important to establish an effective early warning mechanism to the financial crisis. Thermal power is the most important form of generation. It bears more than half of China's electricity supply missions. However, thermal pollution of the environment is also more serious. Today, our voice on environmental protection is increasing. Meanwhile, wind, hydro, solar, nuclear power has gradually developed and have a certain impact to the thermal power industry. So far, several thermal power listed company have faced financial crisis. Therefore, this paper select the thermal power industry to study the financial crisis early warning. There are more important practical significance.
Firstly, this paper take the theoretical study of the financial crisis early warning, clearly the meaning of financial crisis, the formation of the causes of the crisis, the meaning of the financial crisis early warning and other related concepts. Then look for the study sample and select targets, select an effective early-warning model of empirical research. After careful comparison, the paper selected the Logistic regression model. Before modeling, we have to take significant test to the sample data and exclude index without significant differences ensure the accuracy of the model. Finally, we draw conclusions and gives recommendations.

Keywords: thermal power industry financial crisis warning Logistic regression models

目錄
引 言 1
1.財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警概述 2
1.1財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)的判定 2
1.2財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)形成的原因 3
1.3財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的概念 4
1.4火電行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的意義 4
2.火電行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警方法的選擇 6
2.1財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警的理論依據(jù) 6
2.2財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警方法的比較 6
2.3本文財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警方法的確立 7
3.火電行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型研究樣本及預(yù)警指標(biāo)選取 8
3.1研究樣本的選取 8
3.2預(yù)警指標(biāo)的選取 9
3.2.1預(yù)警指標(biāo)的選取原則 9
3.2.2預(yù)警指標(biāo)的初步選擇 10
3.3火電行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警指標(biāo)的篩選 11
3.3.1正態(tài)分布檢驗(yàn) 12
3.3.2兩獨(dú)立樣本的t檢驗(yàn) 12
3.3.3兩獨(dú)立樣本的Mann-Whitney U檢驗(yàn) 13
3.4通過(guò)顯著性差異檢驗(yàn)的指標(biāo) 14
4.火電行業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的建立 16
4.1Logistic回歸模型的建立 16
4.2Logistic回歸模型的檢驗(yàn) 17
5.本研究的結(jié)論及建議 19
5.1研究的結(jié)論 19
5.2本文的建議 19
結(jié)束語(yǔ) 21
參考文獻(xiàn)： 22
附錄一：stata12操作命令 24