摘 要

2009年10月30日，首批28家創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司集中掛牌交易。對于熱衷投資新興板塊的投資者來說，想全面了解上市公司的情況難以辦到，而盲目追入只會帶來“割肉”的痛苦?；谏鲜霰尘?，本課題對創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場上市公司的成長因素進(jìn)行分析，從盈利能力、營運(yùn)能力、償債能力、資本規(guī)模、資本結(jié)構(gòu)等方面選取具有代表性的指標(biāo)，建立計(jì)量模型，運(yùn)用EVIEWS5.1經(jīng)濟(jì)統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件對成長性評價(jià)指標(biāo)做回歸分析，以評估上市公司的成長性，從而客觀地鑒定創(chuàng)業(yè)板市場上市公司的成長狀況和潛力。

本文試圖在以下幾方面形成特色、實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新：

第一，對我國首批28家上市公司進(jìn)行成長性實(shí)證分析。限于之前我國一直未推出創(chuàng)業(yè)板，缺乏創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司的數(shù)據(jù)，前人沒有對我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司的成長性進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。本文開始寫作時(shí)正值我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板正式推出，對本文進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析提供了現(xiàn)實(shí)基礎(chǔ)。

第二，規(guī)范分析與實(shí)證分析的結(jié)合，本文先從理論闡述入手，然后評述其現(xiàn)狀特點(diǎn)，結(jié)合我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板特點(diǎn)，選擇適合我國創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司成長性評價(jià)指標(biāo)體系，最后落實(shí)到實(shí)證分析層面，進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證其成長性，使其更具科學(xué)性、可操作性。

本文主要分為四個部分：第一部分為本文的開篇，即前言部分，主要介紹創(chuàng)業(yè)板、本文研究方法和預(yù)期成果，對國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行綜述和評價(jià)；第二部分對創(chuàng)業(yè)板現(xiàn)狀分析并建立了創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司的成長性評價(jià)體系。第三部分是實(shí)證研究部分。首先對樣本選取、數(shù)據(jù)來源進(jìn)行介紹，在論文中，也運(yùn)用了必要的定性分析方法。論文運(yùn)用EVIEWS5.1統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析等，然后，建立計(jì)量模型，運(yùn)用回歸方法，引入解釋變量，得到對因變量影響顯著的解釋變量，以實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)原假設(shè)。第四部分是對創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司的成長性評價(jià)做簡單總結(jié)，并提出相關(guān)建議，同時(shí)，明確進(jìn)一步研究的方向。

回歸分析表明,創(chuàng)業(yè)板上市公司的凈利潤增長率與凈資產(chǎn)收益率顯著正相關(guān),同時(shí)與資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率也呈正相關(guān)。結(jié)合實(shí)證分析的結(jié)果,對中小板塊上市公司的進(jìn)一步成長提出了一些建議。

關(guān)鍵詞： 創(chuàng)業(yè)板；成長性；指標(biāo)體系；回歸模型

Empirical analysis of the growth Potential of the listed companies on China's GEM

Abstract

October 30, 2009, the first batch of the 28 GEM listed companies are trading. For investors keen to invest in new plates for listed companies to fully understand the situation it is difficult, and the blind pursuit of income will only lead to "flesh" of the pain. Based on the above background, the issues are listed on the GEM market analysis growth factors. From profitability, operational capacity, solvency, capital size, capital structure and other aspects of selecting representative indicators. econometric model, using EVIEWS5.1 software eva luation done on the growth regression analysis to assess the growth of listed companies, thus objective identification of GEM listed company's growth status and potential.

This paper attempts to form a feature in the following areas to achieve innovation:

First, the first batch of 28 Chinese listed companies Growth Analysis. Limited before the introduction of the GEM in China has not been the lack of data on companies listed on GEM, there is no previous GEM listed companies on China's growth for empirical analysis. This began writing at a time when China officially launched the GEM, the empirical analysis in this article provide a realistic basis.   Second, the standard combination of analysis and empirical analysis, this theoretical explanations start to start, and then reviewed the status of features, combined with the characteristics of venture board, select the appropriate country listed on the GEM of the growth of eva luation index system, and finally to the empirical analysis of the implementation level, to further verify its growth to make it more scientific and practical.

   This paper is divided into four parts: the first part of the opening of this paper, namely, the preamble, to introduce the GEM research methods and expected results of this paper, summarizes the situation at home and abroad and eva luation; the second part of the status of the GEM and GEM was established eva luation system of the company's growth. The third part is the empirical research component. First, the sample selection, data sources are described in the paper and applied the necessary qualitative analysis. Paper describes the use of statistical software EVIEWS5.1 statistical analysis, then, to establish quantitative model, the regression method, the introduction of explanatory variables, are significant effects on the dependent variable, explanatory variables, the empirical test of the original hypothesis. The fourth part is the growth of companies listed on GEM eva luation to do a brief summary and suggestions at the same time, a clear direction for further research.

Regression analysis showed that GEM listed companies net profit growth and return on equity was a significant positive correlation with both asset-liability ratio was positively correlated. The results of empirical analysis on small plates for further growth of listed companies made some suggestions.

Keywords: GEM; growth; index system; regression model