現(xiàn)金流量的公司價值分析[外文翻譯]

包括英文原文和中文翻譯

Free Cash Flow, Enterprise Value, and Investor Caution
Harlan Platt
College of Business Administration
Northeastern University
Sebahattin Demirkan
School of Management
SUNY Binghamton University
Marjorie Platt
College of Business Administration
Northeastern University
Abstract：By analyzing actual cash flows in comparison with enterprise values (market capitalization plus debt minus cash) we document that the market dramaticall undervalues firms. The findings suggest that the equity market appears to have an extraordinarily high discount rate which negates future earnings in the calculus of firm value. That is, the discount rate is so high that the vast majority of future cash flows are virtually ignored.
Our research finds that stock prices do not reflect future corporate earnings. This finding contrasts with the well known statement in finance textbooks that “the value of a firm equals the present discounted value of future cash flows.” In fact, we find that enterprise values are substantially less than the present discounted value of future cash flows. A one-dollar increase in future cash flows produces only a 75 cent increase in a firm’s enterprise value.
The implication of our work is clear: companies are worth far more than the market believes. This provides strong support to the idea behind the private equity industry. We realize that of late private equity firms have overpaid for acquisitions and may lose their entire investment during the current phase of deleveraging. Yet, if private equity firms acquire companies at reasonable prices using less debt, they are likely to create substantial value as a consequence of the fact that companies are so undervalued by the market relative to their cash flows.
There are no previous research efforts following our methodological design based on actual cash flows. Rather, .prior research studies have focused on the relationship between forecasted cash flows (by market analysts) and enterprise value. Our approach focuses on a different question – the relationship between discounted future cash flows and the current market value as posited by financial theory.

自由現(xiàn)金流量，企業(yè)價值，與投資者注意

Harlan Platt
東北大學(xué), 工商管理學(xué)院
Sebahattin Demirkan
紐約州立賓厄姆頓大學(xué), 管理學(xué)院
Marjorie Platt
東北大學(xué), 工商管理學(xué)院
摘要：通過比較分析實際現(xiàn)金流量與企業(yè)價值（市場資本總額加上債務(wù)減去現(xiàn)金），我們的文件說，市場大大低估了公司。調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示，股市似乎有一個非常高的折扣率在計算公司價值時否定未來收益。也就是說，折扣率如此之高，未來現(xiàn)金流量的絕大多數(shù)幾乎被忽略。
我們的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，股票價格不反映未來的企業(yè)盈利。與此發(fā)現(xiàn)形成對比，在金融教科書中眾所周知的聲明是，“一個公司的價值等于未來現(xiàn)金流量目前的貼現(xiàn)值”。事實上，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)企業(yè)價值大大高于目前的未來現(xiàn)金流量的貼現(xiàn)值。未來增加的1美元現(xiàn)金流量只產(chǎn)生了75%的企業(yè)價值。
我們工作的含義是明確的：公司價值遠(yuǎn)高于市場認(rèn)為的更多。這對背后的私人股本行業(yè)的想法提供了強有力的支持。我們認(rèn)識到，近來私人股本公司已為收購付超額付出，并可能會在當(dāng)前去杠桿化時期失去他們的全部投資。然而，如果私人股本公司使用較少的債務(wù)，以合理的價格收購公司，他們很可能要創(chuàng)造一個重大價值，原因是基于現(xiàn)金流量公司被市場相低估。
以前沒有按照我們以實際現(xiàn)金流量為基礎(chǔ)的方法設(shè)計的研究成果。相反，以前的研究都集中在預(yù)測的現(xiàn)金流量（按市場分析師的結(jié)果）和企業(yè)價值之間的關(guān)系。我們研究方法的重點是不同的問題 —— 貼現(xiàn)的未來現(xiàn)金流量和以金融理論所假定的當(dāng)前的市場價值關(guān)系。
關(guān)鍵詞：企業(yè)價值，實際現(xiàn)金流量，現(xiàn)金流量，估價